$90k Bitcoin: The Rocket’s Launched, but Where’s the Landing?
Bitcoin hits $90k, back in price discovery—where’s the top? Key indicators could signal when the selling may begin.
I’ll use a decade of traditional finance/corporate experience to refine the chaos into bite-sized chunks for you to digest
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Bitcoin price action goes parabolic following the conclusion of the Presidential Election results as Trump is anticipated to be inaugurated in January
A 35% increase this week as Bitcoin hits $90k before cooling off:
There was $38 billion in trading volume on Bitcoin related products:
The BlackRock BTC ETF has now surpassed the gold ETF and the Silver market cap:
On the corporate side:
MicroStrategy now owns over $20bn BTC, acquiring $2bn more BTC at the market price
Governments weigh in as a proposal surfaces for the U.S. government to acquire 200k BTC per year for the next five years; this would lead to them owning 6% of the total supply by 2030
The U.S. is already the leader with 213k Bitcoin held — the total BTC held by governments is 2.2% of the supply, but could this increase?
Indicators to Pay Attention to:
Pay attention to objective indicators for when the market shows signs of turning:
Global Liquidity (M2 Supply as a Proxy)
Tracking certain correlated assets or metrics — the M2 supply (3 month offset) is incredibly correlated to the price of Bitcoin:
What does this mean?
It’s essentially a proxy for global liquidity - a thesis that Lyn Alden and Raoul Pal share, whereby liquidity becomes available in the market and is invested into assets, hence the 3 month lag to make these economic decisions
This correlation suggests that we could see $100k Bitcoin before the end of the year — provided it continues to track M2 and does not deviate significantly
Fear and Greed index (69, Nice) - Link
Be mindful of the methodology of each index, some are more sensitive than others — Coin Stats has a pretty decent solution that “feels” right with how the market is
Coinbase wallet downloads up 12%/24h - Link
Historically a top indicator when this is the leading app on the Apple store or Google Play — certainly worth paying attention to
Currently rank 81 in the Apple Store
Google Search Trend for Bitcoin at “79” - Link
This is an interesting one, as we do not know for certain where the “new 100” could land — so even though it’s 79% of the search highs in May 2021, there could be significantly more this cycle as more end users enter crypto
Frothy Venture Capital Crypto Funding Levels - Link
We can at least see the general trend upwards in funding so may be able to pre-empt close to the top when these levels approach or exceed the October 2021 of $7bn
Bitcoin topped in November 2021, so could suggest there are a couple of months lag
Exchange flows fairly neutral - Link
Huge volatile spikes in net flows for exchanges around top/bottoms. Currently the flows are fairly neutral, suggesting many are comfortable holding spot or keeping on chain and in the crypto markets
Crypto YouTube Views
As retail traders see bitcoin and crypto proliferate major news channels, the crypto channels could become a focal point for on-crypto natives to source information
Counter trading mainstream media could also be a useful method to selling close to the top — The Rolling Stones was fantastic for the bottom of the NFT bear market
Other indicators:
The lag between Bitcoin Halving and historical all time high — the supply shock is hard coded into the demand dynamics of the market, BTC miners also hold a significant amount of inventory
Technical Analysis Indicators: RSI, Pi, MACD suggesting that certain crypto assets could be over sold/under bought
Market Value to Realized Value Ratio: A ratio of 3.7 has typically illustrated a crypto cycle top. Market price needs to be reviewed against realized value (weighted average of the last on-chain move price)
Refer to the latest Modern Market episode for a broader discussion on this:
I will pull together an analysis over time to track these metrics, and update you each week — stay tuned
Decentralized AI Corner
I’ve covered the decentralized Artificial Intelligence (AI) landscape in previous newsletters — the space moves quickly so I’ll provide you with weekly updates
Sandra Aleow created an awesome visualization of the AI landscape on Base:
Since last week the following news has emerged:
0G Labs Node Sale finishes Nov 13th — see 5% discount code MLS4MMYETH
AI Agent (Zero Bro) launches NFT collection for 0.1 SOL each
Prime Intellect’s INTELLECT 1 achieves a major milestone with 50% completion of training for their 10B parameter decentralized AI model
Spectral Labs explores fully autonomous AI agents with Hyperliquid access, allowing token-gated communities to govern agents capable of leveraged trading
Theoriq AI partners with Cluster Protocol to streamline AI agent workflows and template development
Allora Network unveils the Allora Model Development Kit, facilitating fast, efficient machine learning model creation
Oasis Protocol surpasses 100k users on their Chrome extension as they advance their AI-driven, distributed supercomputer for AI inference
Autonomous_AF launches Bottega, the first DEX on AO designed for autonomous agents, supporting advanced orders like DCA, trailing stops, and more
Aelf Blockchain transforms its Telegram sidechain into a dedicated dApp chain, with plans to integrate AI capabilities across its ecosystem
Open Gradient shares a month of progress since its $8.5m raise, including their devnet launch, SDK rollout, model hub introduction, and seed funding updates
Masafi joins forces with Moraq Gaming to drive prediction markets powered by AI agents, using real-time data sourced from X
PIN AI’s Hi PIN Telegram app reaches 100k users, evolving from a game into a personal AI assistant
Story Protocol launches Odyssey, its final testnet, with close to 100 partners building applications on the platform
Huge s/o to Teng for his weekly updates — well worth a follow to stay ahead
I am pulling together a spreadsheet tracker of AI protocols — to be shared in next week’s edition, so keep an eye out for that when it drops!
NFT Market Volume
NFT volume is up across all major blockchains:
Bitcoin Ordinals lead the charge this week — perhaps they’re returning as a leveraged bet on BTC?
Ethereum NFTs:
Four categories of Ethereum NFTs stand out this week for ROI:
Yuga Assets: Cryptopunks and BAYC as Ape Chain is still building
The pudgy ecosystem is experiencing some relief after a recent sell off — Abstract is around the corner, perfect timing for the launch of the Consumer Crypto Layer 2
Notable NFT Sales
Several $100k + NFT/Ordinal sales this week as
OMG Blue eyes continue to trade over 1.5 BTC as floors on Ordinals pump
Cryptopunk grails are accumulated — perhaps liquidity will flow back into non fungible tokens once profits have been made on the fungibles?
New Participant Indicators
Institutional/Regulatory Developments
Crypto Headwinds
(H/t Mando’s Minutes)
That’s a wrap for issue 98 of S4mmy’s Snippets. I hope you enjoyed it.
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Disclaimer: The content covered in this newsletter is not to be considered investment or financial advice. It is for informational and educational purposes only.
I hold some of the assets mentioned in this newsletter.